We have all found ourself in a strange place over the past 3 months as an invisible enemy penetrated the ramparts of the world , bringing with it dread or distress.
Suddenly, on a dime, thoughts of Spring Break, record stock market valuations, consumer confidence and low unemployment, summer festivals and Family reunions were replaced by the stark realities of incredible loss of life or economic catastrophe.
Debates have arisen about the value of human life versus the cost of economic shut down.
A very well kept secret was something called the Value of Statistical Life ( VSL ) which resulted from work done by US economists many years ago for this very purpose: was the cost of vaccine development, new drug treatments and medical care in anticipation of such pandemics worth the value of the lives it saved?
As reported in the Globe and Mail on April 13th, 2020 by Ian Brown, the calculation has been completed so often it is roughly standardized. A human life has an official US government value of US $10 million. The article quoted Professor Kip Viscusi, an economist at Vanderbilt University and one of the world’s top VSL experts, that the value of saving one Canadian life would be US$7.6 million due to different income levels in the two countries.
If physical distancing for example was to save 140,000 lives in Canada that would be approximately C$1.5 trillion which is roughly six times the $250 billion the Federal Government has thus far committed towards providing some sort of economic support to Canadians.
Brown writes that: “ It is a solid rebuke to bottom line assessments of the value of human existence” and that “ paying off the rescue package may be cheaper than we think”.
This crisis has created a rare opportunity as the world suddenly flatlined, for philosophic reflection about who we are and who we would like to become.
We have seen frightening impacts of dreaded disease; global unpreparedness and absences of leadership; at the same time as new front line heroes, acts of international kindness and intense productivity have emerged.
Will we revert to the norm post vaccine as has occurred following historic pandemics or will we strive for a more egalitarian society? Each one of us have been vaulted into a position to influence this societal crossroad.
Undoubtedly the 2 Great World Wars experienced by our parents and grandparents represented similar benchmarks of life changing magnitude not only for Canadian citizens but also for the Federal Government as the debt to GDP ratio soared to in excess of 100% in support of both Canadian war efforts.
Post WW2 Canada introduced such guarantees as the beginning of universal health care, the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security, Employment Insurance and Child Care benefits.
I will leave the philosophic debate to your own instincts; but in anticipation of our May 14th, 2020 “ Virtual “ Etherington Generations Speaker series event featuring Mr. Sadiq Adatia, Chief Investment Officer for Sun Life Global Investments and Mark & Paul Etherington, it is instructional to reflect upon how recent events have impacted our own VSL and the financial objectives we have created for our Families, Businesses and Estates.
The gold standard of measurement for Etherington Generations has been for over half a century The Stanford Economic Human Life Valuation formula whereby the objective is to replace a minimum of 75% of one’s economic human life value in the event of death, disability, sickness, accident, retirement or long life.
The sum of all asset classes inclusive of investment portfolios, real estate , corporate interest valuations and personal and corporate life insurance minus the tax obligations related to each individual’s estate succession plan is measured against the present value of the provision , as a benchmark, of that 75% projected, indexed, future earned and unearned lifetime income to one’s Family and heirs.
Between Feb 12th, 2020 when China first reported passing 1,000 COVID-19 deaths and March 23rd, 2020 when it apparently reached rock bottom, the S&P lost 33%. Since then, in spite of predictions of global recession, diminished corporate valuations/ price to earnings ratios and over 4 million COVID-19 global cases with no real understanding of its parameters, those same markets have recovered more than two thirds of their losses.
This pandemic has and will impact the assets of us all. What current strategies should we be employing to ensure that our financial objectives for our Families and businesses are fully funded?
It is perhaps instructive to reflect upon the lessons being learned from this pandemic about the world’s approach to “ Just in Time “ trade. As David Parkinson, the economics reporter for the Report on Business wrote on May 6th, 2020: “ sudden declines in consumer demand, severe disruptions to global supply chains; sudden shut downs of entire economies; unimaginable business closures and vital health and safety procurement necessities have meant the emergence of a “ Just in Case “ approach “ to the production and movement of the world’s goods and trade.
Just as Governments around the world have realized the sudden exposure of their citizenry to such “ Just in Time “ necessities as personal protective equipment and ventilators, Etherington Generations has adopted a “ Just in Case “ review format for our corporate and personal clients to ensure that recent fluctuations in their economic human life and business valuation formulae are quantified, addressed, funded and integrated with their changing objectives.
John Locke once famously said: “ What worries you – masters you”. Our “ Just in Case” review will , at worst , eliminate one such item on your list and at best bring you some peace of mind – a commodity in otherwise short supply.
As Bertha Callaway wrote: “ We cannot direct the wind but we can adjust the sails”.
Stay safe.
